Fall Market Outlook
contributed article by Kirk Lynch
Lynch Livestock Inc. and Humeston Livestock Exchange, Humeston, Iowa
Over the past couple of weeks my travels have taken me through large parts of the Midwest. Outside of my home base in Iowa and Missouri I have been through Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming and it is safe to say harvest is in full swing and it looks like it is going to be a bountiful one. There should be plenty of feed out there for the next year and beyond. Which is always a positive to keep cost of grains and feed bills in check. With that being said, we have seen lower markets across the board due to economic issues and PR scares. Let us look at what we have been seeing in the barns.
The feeder market has taken a substantial hit when looking at the board. Luckily for producers, the cash market in the barns has not been as substantial. While it has been lower, it seems to have steadied out as of lately. Seeing most classes and weights of cattle on average about $10 lower than they were a month ago. I expect feeders to be strong throughout the fall as there just is not the numbers out there.
Fat cattle have been anywhere from $8 to $10 lower as well. As producers we have become our own worst enemy and understandably so. With cheap and plentiful corn and feedstuffs we continue to feed cattle longer and heavier. While we are low on fat cattle numbers, we are producing the same number of pounds of beef that we have over the past couple of years. I would not expect the market to get much higher this fall with the trend in cattle weights continually going up.
The weigh up cow and bull markets probably have been affected by the downturn in the market the hardest. Cows that were bringing $1.40 to $1.50 a month ago are bringing $1.20 to $1.30. Same with the bulls, bulls that were bringing $1.70 are bringing $1.45 to $1.50. Attribute this to more cows and bulls coming in the barns straight off pasture as people are weaning and preg checking and choosing to cash in open, old, or problem cows and bulls rather than wintering them.
The bred market has not been affected like the fed and feeder markets. I reckon this is due to the short supply of quality breeding stock and there is plentiful feed especially for cows and heifers throughout the country. Seeing most fall pairs being in the mid to high $2,000’s and depending on the quality and age of the stock some bringing in the low $3,000’s.
Wishing everyone a safe and bountiful harvest and fall and if there is anything you need just give me a call. Until next month!
Kirk Lynch, Lynch Livestock Inc., Lineville, Iowa
Kirk is the beef division manager for Lynch Livestock Inc. and oversees all aspects of their backgrounding and cattle feeding operations throughout Iowa and Kansas. He is also deeply involved in the Humeston Livestock Exchange in Humeston, Iowa. In addition, Kirk and his wife Mary own and operate Heartland Simmentals in northeast Iowa, which is a seedstock operation that consists of 500 registered Simmental and Angus cows. They have four children: Gabrielle (11), Brayden (9), Vivian (7), and Bianca (4).
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